kdo's 2019 MLB fantasy baseball prognostications

rotohead’s fantasy baseball prognostications

fantasy awards:

NL hitting MVP: Freddie Freeman, .326 BA, 39 HR, 12 SB, 114 R, 132 RB

runner-up: Juan Soto, .308 BA, 42 HR, 10 SB, 106 R, 124 RB

NL pitching MVP: Stephen Strasburg, 20 W, 236 K, 2.76 ERA, 1.02 WHIP

runner-up: Noah Syndergaard, 17 W, 242 K, 2.98 ERA, 1.11 WHIP

NL hitting ROY: Victor Robles, .286 BA, 14 HR, 42 SB, 101 R, 64 RB

runner-up: Nick Senzel, .294 BA, 18 HR, 9 SB, 88 R, 68 RB

NL pitching ROY: Chris Paddack, 12 W, 52 K, 2.97 ERA, 1.08 WHIP

AL hitting MVP: Tommy Pham, .293 BA, 32 HR, 30 SB, 116 R, 104 RBI

runner-up: Aaron Judge, .281 BA, 48 HR, 8 SB, 109 R, 114 RB

AL pitching MVP: Chris Sale, 21 W, 300 K, 2.71 ERA, .98 WHIP

runner-up: Corey Kluber, 19 W, 238 K, 2.88 ERA, 1.01 WHIP

AL hitting ROY: Eloy Jimenez, .296 BA, 31 HR, 1 SB, 84 R, 102 RBI

runner-up: Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., .314 BA, 24 HR, 1 SB, 72 R, 88 RBI

AL pitching ROY: Forrest Whitley, 8 W, 138 K, 3.12 ERA, 1.04 WHIP

100 picks and pans:

1.       A.J. Minter, 29 S, 86 K, 2.32 ERA, 1.08 WHIP

2.       Johan Camargo finds 500 at bats and hit .290 with 25 HR

3.       Kevin Gausman, analytics said it was luck, his luck continues, 200 K & 20 W

4.       Mike Foltynewicz command falters and WHIP balloons to 1.42

5.       Zack Godley surpasses 200 k's with a 1.22 whip

6.       David Peralta had 30 HR in 2018 but won’t hit half that in 2019

7.       Dylan Bundy bounces back, 220 K and a 1.18 WHIP

8.       Rafael Devers, .280 BA, 33HR, 102 RBI

9.       Eduardo Rodriguez enjoys an injury free season and sets career highs, 18 W, 210 K

10.   Jackie Bradley, Jr. has his first 20/20 season

11.   J.D. Martinez fails to reach 400 at bats

12.   Ian Happ gets recalled and is 2018 Javier Baez (with walks)

13.   Jose Quintana has a career year, 190K, 17 wins and a whip under 1.20

14.   Yoan Moncada reduces his K rate, and goes 25/25

15.   Tim Anderson does not reach 20 HR or 20 SB

16.   Yasiel Puig does not reach 500 at bats and is not a top 100 player

17.   Trevor Bauer has a 1.30 + WHIP and is a fantasy bust.

18.   David Dahl breakout, 30 HR, 12 SB

19.   Ian Desmond finally benefits in Coors Field, .280 AVE, 32 HR, 20 SB

20.   Jon Gray outperforms German Marquez

21.   Daniel Murphy does not reach 15 HR

22.   Matt Boyd pitches like an Ace

23.   Nick Castellanos with a career year, .304 AVE, 29 HR, 102 R, 108 RBI

24.   Miguel Cabrera is the comeback player of the year

25.   Joe Jimenez becomes an elite Closer for the Tigers

26.   Josh Reddick hit .242 in 2018, he will hit .300 with 20 HR in 2019

27.   Jose Altuve has a career year, .342 AVE, 26 HR, 32 SB

28.   Forrest Whitley will be drafted in the 2^nd round in 2019

29.   Whit Merrifield will not steal more than 25 bases

30.   Billy Hamilton will double Whit’s SB total with 50+

31.   Jorge Soler powers 30 jacks

32.   Tyler Skaggs is a top 30 pitcher

33.   Shohei Ohtani delivers 30 HR, 10 SB 

34.   Cody Bellinger hits 45 HR

35.   Alex Verdugo, .300 AVE, 15 HR, 15 SB

36.   Max Muncy hits under .250 and has less than 20 HR

37.   Yasmani Grandal is not a top 10 catcher

38.   Corbin Burnes is Milwaukee’s Ace

39.   Jesus Aguilar will lose the starting job and have less than 300 AB.

40.   Jorge Polanco goes 20/20

41.   Byron Buxton goes 20/30

42.   Max Kepler goes 30/10

43.   Eddie Rosario is the least productive of the 3 listed above

44.   Jacob DeGrom pitches like an Ace

45.   Noah Syndergaard pitches better than Jacob DeGrom

46.   Ahmed Rosario swipes 40 bags

47.   Pete Alonzo, delights with a .260 AVE, 30 HR 

48.   Michael Conforto hits 41 HR

49.   Aaron Judge leads the AL in home runs with 48

50.   Giancarlo Stanton does not reach 30 HR

51.   Gleyber Torres avoids a sophomore slump, goes 30/10

52.   Gary Sanchez will be the #1 fantasy catcher

53.   Matt Chapman hits 35 HR

54.   A.J. Puk is dominant in his brief stint, A’s Ace in 2020

55.   Blake Treinen has command issues, A’s go with Closer by committee

56.   Odubel Herrera goes 25/20

57.   Nick Pivetta is all hype. Strikeouts are there but so is the ugly 1.40 WHIP

58.   Zach Eflin is the best Phillies pitcher (after Aaron Nola)

59.   Josh Bell is fantasy goodness, 28 HR, 100 RBI

60.   Kirby Yates leads the NL in Saves with 44

61.   Fernando Tatis, Jr. is sent down to the minors in June

62.   Fernando Tatis, Jr. returns in August to lead the Padres to the playoffs

63.   Manuel Margot tops 20/20

64.   Franchy Cordero tops 20/10

65.   Hunter Renfroe hits more than 35 home runs

66.   Franmil Reyes hits more than 30 home runs

67.   I am only right on 2 of the 4 predictions made above 

68.   Chris Paddack has a Walker Buehler type rookie season

69.   Matt Strahm has a better season than Chris Paddack

70.   Hunter Strickland will not be closing for Seattle come July

71.   Mallex Smith hits under .260 and has less than 25 SB

72.   Dee Gordon doubles Mallex SB total with 50+

73.   Domingo Santana goes 16/6, but that’s really nothing to write home about

74.   Madison Bumgarner, a return to glory: 15W, 208 K, 2.98 ERA and 1.08 WHIP

75.   Buster Posey bats .308 with 21 HR

76.   Brandon Belt just misses 30 HR (settles for 28)

77.   Reyes Moronta is the Giants Closer by midseason

78.   Jeff Samardzija delights with 200 K and a WHIP below 1.20

79.   Matt Carpenter bats .244 and struggles to hit 20 HR

80.   Jack Flaherty is dominant, 220 K with a 1.10 WHIP

81.   Alex Reyes disappoints with an ERA over 4.0 and a WHIP over 1.35

82.   Willy Adames, .294 AVE, 20 HR, 15 SB, not too shabby

83.   Austin Meadows, breakout alert: .288 AVE, 25 HR, 18 SB, 100 R 

84.   Tyler Glasnow, great K rate but command still dicey, 2020 will be his year 

85.   Rougned Odor, Believe it or not! .270, 30 HR, 15 SB, 90 R, 100 RBI

86.   Joey Gallo hits 46 HR with .230 AVE but .346 OBP! You down with OBP?

87.   Nomar Mazara hits 30+ homers with 100 RBI

88.   Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a consensus 1^st rounder in 2020 

89.   Bo Bichette gets the call by August and rakes. A consensus 5^th rounder in 2020

90.   Danny Jansen struggles mightily, .244 AVE, 8 HR

91.   Ken Giles somehow gets 38 Saves for a 68 win team

92.   Max Scherzer shows no sign of slowing down and is dominant

93.   Stephen Strasburg is more dominating and wins the Cy Young award

94.   Juan Soto is even better than last season… by a lot!

95.   Anthony Rendon has career year: .316, 32 HR, 100 R, 110 RBI

96.   Trea Turner steals 68 bases to lead the majors

97.   Washington Nationals defeat the Atlanta Braves in the NLCS

98.   New York Yankees defeat the Houston Astros in the ALCS

99.   Washington Nationals defeat the New York Yankees in the World Series

100.   Baseball season is now over and I long for April 2020
#oftenwrongneverindoubt

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My game plan for drafting pitching in 2019

Drafting pitching in a 15 team 5x5 Standard Roto league.

Goal: Be among the league leaders in ERA, WHIP and Saves while settling for middle of the pack in Wins and upper middle tier in K’s.

Round 1-5: Get 2 Aces

Rounds 7-12: Get 2 Quality Closers (Do not draft one until at least the top 2 Closers have been drafted)

Rounds 16 -18: Get 1 Middle reliever with a chance to close that can get 80k+ with a great whip and era (Betances, Seranthony, Minter) or your 3rd starter with high k/9 rate that won’t kill your whip.

That is a total of 5 pitchers through 18 rounds. You must Pound, Pound, Pound hitting with your 13 other picks. Make sure to dominate all Hitting Categories, don’t punt any category when it comes to Hitting.

Round 19–23: Get 4 pitchers to make a total of 9 pitchers by the end of round 23. You need to solidify your rotation while not screwing up your whip and ratios. I know... easier said than done. There will be lots of bargain pitchers available as other owners will be scrambling to fill out the rest of their starting offensive players.

Problem is several of these guys are going to end up being horrible, but a handful will help you win a title, key is choosing the right one. Good thing about drafting pitchers this late is if/when they become a detriment to your team, you will have no problem dropping them. 1/3 to over 1/2 of these players will be drafted prior to round 18. Resist the urge to reach for any pitcher listed. Let the other owners help make the decision for you so when it’s your turn to pick in round 19, you can just select the next available player of your choice from the players listed below.

Bounce back Starters:

Robbie Ray

Jose Quintana

Jon Gray

Zack Godley

Dylan Bundy

Luke Weaver

Starters with mixed results returning from injury:

Alex Reyes

Tyler Skaggs

Michael Fulmer

Steven Matz

Julio Urias

Yu Darvish

Jimmy Nelson

Jeff Samardzija

Carlo Rodon

Michael Pineda

Vincent Velasquez

The Reliever turned (possible) Starter:

Tyler Glasnow

Collin McHugh

Corbin Burnes

Josh James

Mike Minor

Matt Strahm

Brad Peacock

Seth Lugo

Freddy Peralta

Yonny Chirinos

Jonathan Loaisiga

Under the radar guys who had a nice 2018 - can they build on it in 2019?

Andrew Heaney

Nathan Eovaldi

Joe Musgrove

Joey Lucchesi

Tyler Anderson

Mike Fiers

Kevin Gausman

Matt Boyd

Jhoulys Chacin

Joey Lucchesi

Marco Estrada

Zach Eflin

Jose Urena

Derek Holland

Marco Gonzalez

Reynaldo Lopez

Dereck Rodriguez

Jacob Junis

Robert Erlin

Trevor Richards

Rookies:

Jesus Luzardo

Forrest Whitley

Chris Paddack

Allen Logan

Brent Honeywell

Touki Toussaint (Mike Soroka, Luiz Gohara)

Reserve rounds: Add a couple from the leftovers listed above and add another middle reliever with a chance to close

Relievers worth stashing:

Trevor May

Blake Parker

Joe Jimenez

Jose Castillo

Kelvin Herrera

Ryan Brasier

Sergio Romo

Diego Castillo

Keone Kela

Yoshihisa Hirano

Hector Neris

Swung-Huang Oh

Reyes Moronta

Craig Stammen

Like with all strategies, you must be a little lucky. But I believe you create your own luck by being prepared. The beauty of this strategy is if you choose wrong, you weren’t heavily invested on that player, so the player is an easy drop. If you reach for a player in the late single digit or early teen rounds, you end up being married to that player and continue to start him to your team’s detriment as their era and whip destroy your pitching.

Give this strategy a shot…

Thank me at seasons end. #oftenwrongneverindoubt

About me: I have been playing fantasy baseball since 1987. I have no analytical expertise or crunch any numbers to support my conclusions. I simply gather up as much info as I can from the smart guys in the industry and then come up with my 2 cents. My one advantage over most of the smart guys is that they are too smart to take risks on certain players as the data won’t allow them to do it. I on the other hand, take all the data and add the human element to it, things that cannot be quantified through math and incorporate my knowledge through experience to foresee a player’s potential breakout or potential bust alert. So, while I cannot back up anything I write about with actual data, my history of winning as well as losing these past 30 years has allowed me to adapt to the year to year trends and strategies which make me a better fantasy baseball player. I can be found 24/7 on Baseball 365 Facebook page or on Twitter @iRotohead

Cheers & Play Ball,

Khang Do (Can Doe)



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kdo's top 100 MLB dynasty league prospect rankings 2019

kdo's 2019 mlb fantasy prospect rankings
Rankings are based for Fantasy Baseball purposes.
Standard 5x5 Roto DYNASTY (keep forever) format.
Player's ceiling/floor, hit tool, walk rate, k rate, wRC+, age and pedigree all have a big impact on how I have them ranked.
Defense is only factored if it affects a player’s at bats or if a likely change in position would have an impact (C to 1b) in a players value.
I prefer a batter that can make the biggest MLB impact with hit tool being one of the main factors.
Young Pitching is so volatile. So many have filthy elite stuff, but injury and command are a pitcher’s best friend or worst nightmare.
I prefer drafting pitching prospects late (with a few exceptions) or else trade for them when they reach the majors.
Regarding prospects, I'd rather reach too early on a player if I believe in the talent then go "safe" and miss out because I waited too long.
There are no "safe" picks with prospects, just better educated guesses. So, when In doubt, go big and reach for the stars.
Below are my personal rankings that I would use for a dynasty start-up draft or supplemental rookie draft.
Top 10 : No doubt about, these guys are Future MLB Stars
11-50 : you could flip these rankings and it would not bother me. These are guys I love but
they come with holes or are just too inexperienced. All are capable of jumping into the Top 10 or making an MLB impact by season's end.
51-100 : Lots of promise and blemishes in this group. Which direction one follows will determine if
he is a "can't miss prospect" or will drop out of the top 100 and beyond.
Rank	Player	Pos	Organization	Level	Age
1	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	3B	Toronto Blue Jays	AAA	19
2	Eloy Jimenez	OF	Chicago White Sox	AAA	22
3	Victor Robles	OF	Washington Nationals	MLB	21
4	Wander Franco	SS	Tampa Bay Rays	ROOK	17
5	Nick Senzel	3B	Cincinnati Reds	AAA	23
6	Royce Lewis	SS	Minnesota Twins	A+	19
7	Bo Bichette	SS	Toronto Blue Jays	AA	20
8	Forrest Whitley	SP	Houston Astros	AA	21
9	Fernando Tatis Jr.	SS	San Diego Padres	AA	20
10	Alex Kirilloff	OF	Minnesota Twins	A+	21
11	Jo Adell	OF	Los Angeles Angels	AA	19
12	Yordan Alvarez	1B	Houston Astros	AAA	21
13	Jesus Luzardo	SP	Oakland Athletics	AAA	21
14	Kyle Tucker	OF	Houston Astros	MLB	22
15	Brendan Rodgers	SS	Colorado Rockies	AAA	22
16	Keston Hiura	2B	Milwaukee Brewers	AA	22
17	Michael Kopech	SP	Chicago White Sox	MLB	22
18	Kristian Robinson	OF	Arizona Diamondbacks	ROOK	18
19	Luis Garcia	SS	Washington Nationals	A+	18
20	Taylor Trammell	OF	Cincinnati Reds	A+	21
21	Ke’Bryan Hayes	3B	Pittsburgh Pirates	AAA	22
22	Austin Riley	3B	Atlanta Braves	AAA	21
23	MacKenzie Gore	SP	San Diego Padres	A	19
24	A.J. Puk	SP	Oakland Athletics	AA	23
25	Brent Honeywell	SP	Tampa Bay Rays	AAA	23
26	Peter Alonso	1B	New York Mets	AAA	24
27	Mike Soroka	SP	Atlanta Braves	MLB	21
28	Joey Bart	C	San Francisco Giants	ROOK	22
29	Yusniel Diaz	OF	Baltimore Orioles	AA	22
30	Casey Mize	SP	Detroit Tigers	A+	21
31	Jonathan India	3B	Cincinnati Reds	A	22
32	George Valera	OF	Cleveland Indians	ROOK	18
33	Victor Victor Mesa	OF	Miami Marlins	A+	22
34	Trevor Larnach	OF	Minnesota Twins	A	21
35	Nathaniel Lowe	1B	Tampa Bay Rays	AAA	23
36	Jazz Chisholm	SS	Arizona Diamondbacks	A+	20
37	Alex Reyes	SP	St. Louis Cardinals	MLB	24
38	Matt Manning	SP	Detroit Tigers	AA	21
39	Dylan Cease	SP	Chicago White Sox	AAA	23
40	Nolan Jones	3B	Cleveland Indians	A+	20
41	Garrett Hampson	2B	Colorado Rockies	MLB	24
42	Jesus Sanchez	OF	Tampa Bay Rays	AA	21
43	Chris Paddack	SP	San Diego Padres	AA	23
44	Gavin Lux	2B	Los Angeles Dodgers	AA	21
45	Andres Gimenez	SS	New York Mets	AA	20
46	Carter Kieboom	SS	Washington Nationals	AA	21
47	Vidal Brujan	2B	Tampa Bay Rays	A+	20
48	Ian Anderson	SP	Atlanta Braves	AA	20
49	Luis Robert	OF	Chicago White Sox	A+	21
50	Alex Verdugo	OF	Los Angeles Dodgers	MLB	22
51	Yusei Kikuchi	SP	Seattle Mariners	JAPAN	27
52	Bubba Thompson	OF	Texas Rangers	A	20
53	Touki Toussaint	SP	Atlanta Braves	MLB	22
54	Daz Cameron	OF	Detroit Tigers	AAA	22
55	Triston McKenzie	SP	Cleveland Indians	AA	21
56	Sixto Sanchez	SP	Philadelphia Phillies	A+	20
57	Nolan Gorman	3B	St. Louis Cardinals	A	18
58	Nick Madrigal	2B	Chicago White Sox	AA	21
59	Keibert Ruiz	C	Los Angeles Dodgers	AA	20
60	Luis Urias	2B	San Diego Padres	MLB	21
61	DL Hall	SP	Baltimore Orioles	A	20
62	Mitch Keller	SP	Pittsburgh Pirates	AAA	22
63	Nate Pearson	SP	Toronto Blue Jays	A+	22
64	Matthew Liberatore	SP	Tampa Bay Rays	ROOK	19
65	Tyler Freeman	SS	Cleveland Indians	ROOK	19
66	Hudson Potts	3B	San Diego Padres	AA	20
67	Drew Waters	OF	Atlanta Braves	A+	20
68	Joshua James	SP	Houston Astros	MLB	25
69	Jarred Kelenic	OF	Seattle Mariners	A	19
70	Adrian Morejon	SP	San Diego Padres	A+	19
71	Nick Pratto	1b	Kansas City Royals	A	20
72	Francisco Mejia	C	San Diego Padres	MLB	23
73	Luis Patino	SP	San Diego Padres	A	19
74	Bryse Wilson	SP	Atlanta Braves	MLB	21
75	Mark Vientos	3B	New York Mets	ROOK	19
76	Kyle Wright	SP	Atlanta Braves	MLB	23
77	Brendan Mckay	P/1B	Tampa Bay Rays	A+	23
78	Marco Luciano	SS	San Francisco Giants	ROOK	17
79	Colton Welker	3B	Colorado Rockies	A+	21
80	Adonis Medina	SP	Philadelphia Phillies	A+	22
81	Logan Allen	SP	San Diego Padres	AAA	21
82	Hunter Greene	SP	Cincinnati Reds	A	19
83	Brandon Marsh	OF	Los Angeles Angels	A+	20
84	Jorge Mateo	SS	Oakland Athletics	AAA	23
85	Adam Haseley	OF	Philadelphia Phillies	AA	22
86	Brayan Rocchio	2B	Cleveland Indians	ROOK	18
87	Austin Beck	OF	Oakland Athletics	A	20
88	Nico Hoerner	SS	Chicago Cubs	A	21
89	Xavier Edwards	2B	San Diego Padres	ROOK	19
90	Estevan Florial	OF	New York Yankees	A+	20
91	Khalil Lee	OF	Kansas City Royals	AA	20
92	Danny Jansen	C	Toronto Blue Jays	MLB	22
93	Jhon Torres	OF	St. Louis Cardinals	ROOK	18
94	Jordan Groshans	3B	Toronto Blue Jays	ROOK	18
95	Heliot Ramos	OF	San Francisco Giants	A	19
96	Elehuris Montero	3B	St. Louis Cardinals	A+	20
97	Anderson Espinoza	SP	San Diego Padres	A+	20
98	Jonathan Loaisiga	SP	New York Yankees	MLB	23
99	Luis Rengifo	2B	Los Angeles Angels	AAA	21
100	Luiz Gohara	SP	Atlanta Braves	MLB	22
Honorable Mention : All have the ability to leapfrog into the top 100 in a hurry!
(listed by age)
	Everson Pereira	OF	New York Yankees	ROOK	17
	Jeisson Rosario	OF	San Diego Padres	A	18
	Tirso Ornelas	OF	San Diego Padres	A	18
	Antonio Cabello	OF	New York Yankees	ROOK	18
	Julio Rodriguez	OF	Seattle Mariners	ROOK	18
	Isaac Parades	SS	Detroit Tigers	AA	19
	Deivi Garcia	SP	New York Yankees	AA	19
	Shane Baz	SP	Tampa Bay Rays	ROOK	19
	Esteury Ruiz	2B	San Diego Padres	A	19
	Freudis Nova	SS	Houston Astros	ROOK	19
	Jordyn Adams	OF	Los Angeles Angels	ROOK	19
	Shervyen Newton	SS	New York Mets	ROOK	19
	Luis Oviedo	SP	Cleveland Indians	A	19
	Brusdar Graterol	SP	Minnesota Twins	A+	20
	Leody Taveres	OF	Texas Rangers	A+	20
	Ronaldo Hernandez	C	Tampa Bay Rays	A	20
	Jeter Downs	SS	Cincinnati Reds	A	20
	Seuly Matias	OF	Kansas City Royals	A	20
	Wander Javier	SS	Minnesota Twins	ROOK	20
	Ryan Mountcastle	3B	Baltimore Orioles	AA	21
	Franklin Perez	SP	Detroit Tigers	A+	21
	Jahmai Jones	2B	Los Angeles Angels	AA	21
	Dustin May	SP	Los Angeles Dodgers	AA	21
	Travis Swaggerty	OF	Pittsburgh Pirates	A	21
	Joey Wentz	SP	Atlanta Braves	A+	21
	Tony Santillan	SP	Cincinnati Reds	AA	21
	Evan White	1B	Seattle Mariners	AA	22
	Griffin Canning	SP	Los Angeles Angels	AAA	22
	Kevin Smith	SS	Toronto Blue Jays	A+	22
	Justus Sheffield	SP	Seattle Mariners	MLB	22
	Alec Bohm	3B	Philadelphia Phillies	ROOK	22
	Dennis Santana	SP	Los Angeles Dodgers	MLB	22
	Dalton Varsho	C	Arizona Diamondbacks	A+	22
	Brady Singer	SP	Kansas City Royals	ROOK	22
	Julio Pablo Martinez	OF	Texas Rangers	ROOK	22
	Seth Beer	1B	Houston Astros	A+	22
	Cole Tucker	SS	Pittsburgh Pirates	AA	22
	Clarke Schmidt	SP	New York Yankees	A	22
	Daniel Lynch	SP	Kansas City Royals	A	22
	Corbin Martin	SP	Houston Astros	AA	23
	Michael Chavis	3B	Boston Red Sox	AAA	23
	Justin Dunn	SP	Seattle Mariners	AA	23
	Monte Harrison	OF	Miami Marlins	AA	23
	Nick Solak	2B	Tampa Bay Rays	AA	23
	Austin Hays	OF	Baltimore Orioles	MLB	23
	Jon Duplantier	SP	Arizona Diamondbacks	AA	24
	Taylor Widener	SP	Arizona Diamondbacks	AA	24
	Dane Dunning	SP	Chicago White Sox	AA	24
	Corey Ray	OF	Milwaukee Brewers	AA	24
	Joe Palumbo	SP	Texas Rangers	AA	24
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