Monday, March 25, 2019

kdo's 2019 MLB fantasy baseball prognostications

rotohead’s fantasy baseball prognostications

fantasy awards:

NL hitting MVP: Freddie Freeman, .326 BA, 39 HR, 12 SB, 114 R, 132 RB
runner-up: Juan Soto, .308 BA, 42 HR, 10 SB, 106 R, 124 RB
NL pitching MVP: Stephen Strasburg, 20 W, 236 K, 2.76 ERA, 1.02 WHIP
runner-up: Noah Syndergaard, 17 W, 242 K, 2.98 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
NL hitting ROY: Victor Robles, .286 BA, 14 HR, 42 SB, 101 R, 64 RB
runner-up: Nick Senzel, .294 BA, 18 HR, 9 SB, 88 R, 68 RB
NL pitching ROY: Chris Paddack, 12 W, 52 K, 2.97 ERA, 1.08 WHIP

AL hitting MVP: Tommy Pham, .293 BA, 32 HR, 30 SB, 116 R, 104 RBI
runner-up: Aaron Judge, .281 BA, 48 HR, 8 SB, 109 R, 114 RB
AL pitching MVP: Chris Sale, 21 W, 300 K, 2.71 ERA, .98 WHIP
runner-up: Corey Kluber, 19 W, 238 K, 2.88 ERA, 1.01 WHIP
AL hitting ROY: Eloy Jimenez, .296 BA, 31 HR, 1 SB, 84 R, 102 RBI
runner-up: Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., .314 BA, 24 HR, 1 SB, 72 R, 88 RBI
AL pitching ROY: Forrest Whitley, 8 W, 138 K, 3.12 ERA, 1.04 WHIP

100 picks and pans:

1.       A.J. Minter, 29 S, 86 K, 2.32 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
2.       Johan Camargo finds 500 at bats and hit .290 with 25 HR
3.       Kevin Gausman, analytics said it was luck, his luck continues, 200 K & 20 W
4.       Mike Foltynewicz command falters and WHIP balloons to 1.42
5.       Zack Godley surpasses 200 k's with a 1.22 whip
6.       David Peralta had 30 HR in 2018 but won’t hit half that in 2019
7.       Dylan Bundy bounces back, 220 K and a 1.18 WHIP
8.       Rafael Devers, .280 BA, 33HR, 102 RBI
9.       Eduardo Rodriguez enjoys an injury free season and sets career highs, 18 W, 210 K
10.   Jackie Bradley, Jr. has his first 20/20 season
11.   J.D. Martinez fails to reach 400 at bats
12.   Ian Happ gets recalled and is 2018 Javier Baez (with walks)
13.   Jose Quintana has a career year, 190K, 17 wins and a whip under 1.20
14.   Yoan Moncada reduces his K rate, and goes 25/25
15.   Tim Anderson does not reach 20 HR or 20 SB
16.   Yasiel Puig does not reach 500 at bats and is not a top 100 player
17.   Trevor Bauer has a 1.30 + WHIP and is a fantasy bust.
18.   David Dahl breakout, 30 HR, 12 SB
19.   Ian Desmond finally benefits in Coors Field, .280 AVE, 32 HR, 20 SB
20.   Jon Gray outperforms German Marquez
21.   Daniel Murphy does not reach 15 HR
22.   Matt Boyd pitches like an Ace
23.   Nick Castellanos with a career year, .304 AVE, 29 HR, 102 R, 108 RBI
24.   Miguel Cabrera is the comeback player of the year
25.   Joe Jimenez becomes an elite Closer for the Tigers
26.   Josh Reddick hit .242 in 2018, he will hit .300 with 20 HR in 2019
27.   Jose Altuve has a career year, .342 AVE, 26 HR, 32 SB
28.   Forrest Whitley will be drafted in the 2nd round in 2019
29.   Whit Merrifield will not steal more than 25 bases
30.   Billy Hamilton will double Whit’s SB total with 50+
31.   Jorge Soler powers 30 jacks
32.   Tyler Skaggs is a top 30 pitcher
33.   Shohei Ohtani delivers 30 HR, 10 SB 
34.   Cody Bellinger hits 45 HR
35.   Alex Verdugo, .300 AVE, 15 HR, 15 SB
36.   Max Muncy hits under .250 and has less than 20 HR
37.   Yasmani Grandal is not a top 10 catcher
38.   Corbin Burnes is Milwaukee’s Ace
39.   Jesus Aguilar will lose the starting job and have less than 300 AB.
40.   Jorge Polanco goes 20/20
41.   Byron Buxton goes 20/30
42.   Max Kepler goes 30/10
43.   Eddie Rosario is the least productive of the 3 listed above
44.   Jacob DeGrom pitches like an Ace
45.   Noah Syndergaard pitches better than Jacob DeGrom
46.   Ahmed Rosario swipes 40 bags
47.   Pete Alonzo, delights with a .260 AVE, 30 HR 
48.   Michael Conforto hits 41 HR
49.   Aaron Judge leads the AL in home runs with 48
50.   Giancarlo Stanton does not reach 30 HR
51.   Gleyber Torres avoids a sophomore slump, goes 30/10
52.   Gary Sanchez will be the #1 fantasy catcher
53.   Matt Chapman hits 35 HR
54.   A.J. Puk is dominant in his brief stint, A’s Ace in 2020
55.   Blake Treinen has command issues, A’s go with Closer by committee
56.   Odubel Herrera goes 25/20
57.   Nick Pivetta is all hype. Strikeouts are there but so is the ugly 1.40 WHIP
58.   Zach Eflin is the best Phillies pitcher (after Aaron Nola)
59.   Josh Bell is fantasy goodness, 28 HR, 100 RBI
60.   Kirby Yates leads the NL in Saves with 44
61.   Fernando Tatis, Jr. is sent down to the minors in June
62.   Fernando Tatis, Jr. returns in August to lead the Padres to the playoffs
63.   Manuel Margot tops 20/20
64.   Franchy Cordero tops 20/10
65.   Hunter Renfroe hits more than 35 home runs
66.   Franmil Reyes hits more than 30 home runs
67.   I am only right on 2 of the 4 predictions made above 
68.   Chris Paddack has a Walker Buehler type rookie season
69.   Matt Strahm has a better season than Chris Paddack
70.   Hunter Strickland will not be closing for Seattle come July
71.   Mallex Smith hits under .260 and has less than 25 SB
72.   Dee Gordon doubles Mallex SB total with 50+
73.   Domingo Santana goes 16/6, but that’s really nothing to write home about
74.   Madison Bumgarner, a return to glory: 15W, 208 K, 2.98 ERA and 1.08 WHIP
75.   Buster Posey bats .308 with 21 HR
76.   Brandon Belt just misses 30 HR (settles for 28)
77.   Reyes Moronta is the Giants Closer by midseason
78.   Jeff Samardzija delights with 200 K and a WHIP below 1.20
79.   Matt Carpenter bats .244 and struggles to hit 20 HR
80.   Jack Flaherty is dominant, 220 K with a 1.10 WHIP
81.   Alex Reyes disappoints with an ERA over 4.0 and a WHIP over 1.35
82.   Willy Adames, .294 AVE, 20 HR, 15 SB, not too shabby
83.   Austin Meadows, breakout alert: .288 AVE, 25 HR, 18 SB, 100 R 
84.   Tyler Glasnow, great K rate but command still dicey, 2020 will be his year 
85.   Rougned Odor, Believe it or not! .270, 30 HR, 15 SB, 90 R, 100 RBI
86.   Joey Gallo hits 46 HR with .230 AVE but .346 OBP! You down with OBP?
87.   Nomar Mazara hits 30+ homers with 100 RBI
88.   Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a consensus 1st rounder in 2020 
89.   Bo Bichette gets the call by August and rakes. A consensus 5th rounder in 2020
90.   Danny Jansen struggles mightily, .244 AVE, 8 HR
91.   Ken Giles somehow gets 38 Saves for a 68 win team
92.   Max Scherzer shows no sign of slowing down and is dominant
93.   Stephen Strasburg is more dominating and wins the Cy Young award
94.   Juan Soto is even better than last season… by a lot!
95.   Anthony Rendon has career year: .316, 32 HR, 100 R, 110 RBI
96.   Trea Turner steals 68 bases to lead the majors
97.   Washington Nationals defeat the Atlanta Braves in the NLCS
98.   New York Yankees defeat the Houston Astros in the ALCS
99.   Washington Nationals defeat the New York Yankees in the World Series
100.   Baseball season is now over and I long for April 2020

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Thursday, March 7, 2019

My game plan for drafting pitching in 2019

Drafting pitching in a 15 team 5x5 Standard Roto league.

Goal: Be among the league leaders in ERA, WHIP and Saves while settling for middle of the pack in Wins and upper middle tier in K’s.

Round 1-5: Get 2 Aces

Rounds 7-12: Get 2 Quality Closers (Do not draft one until at least the top 2 Closers have been drafted)

Rounds 16 -18: Get 1 Middle reliever with a chance to close that can get 80k+ with a great whip and era (Betances, Seranthony, Minter) or your 3rd starter with high k/9 rate that won’t kill your whip.

That is a total of 5 pitchers through 18 rounds. You must Pound, Pound, Pound hitting with your 13 other picks. Make sure to dominate all Hitting Categories, don’t punt any category when it comes to Hitting.

Round 19–23: Get 4 pitchers to make a total of 9 pitchers by the end of round 23. You need to solidify your rotation while not screwing up your whip and ratios. I know... easier said than done. There will be lots of bargain pitchers available as other owners will be scrambling to fill out the rest of their starting offensive players.

Problem is several of these guys are going to end up being horrible, but a handful will help you win a title, key is choosing the right one. Good thing about drafting pitchers this late is if/when they become a detriment to your team, you will have no problem dropping them. 1/3 to over 1/2 of these players will be drafted prior to round 18. Resist the urge to reach for any pitcher listed. Let the other owners help make the decision for you so when it’s your turn to pick in round 19, you can just select the next available player of your choice from the players listed below.

Bounce back Starters:
Robbie Ray
Jose Quintana
Jon Gray
Zack Godley
Dylan Bundy
Luke Weaver

Starters with mixed results returning from injury:
Alex Reyes
Tyler Skaggs
Michael Fulmer
Steven Matz
Julio Urias
Yu Darvish
Jimmy Nelson
Jeff Samardzija
Carlo Rodon
Michael Pineda
Vincent Velasquez

The Reliever turned (possible) Starter:
Tyler Glasnow
Collin McHugh
Corbin Burnes
Josh James
Mike Minor
Matt Strahm
Brad Peacock
Seth Lugo
Freddy Peralta
Yonny Chirinos
Jonathan Loaisiga

Under the radar guys who had a nice 2018 - can they build on it in 2019?
Andrew Heaney
Nathan Eovaldi
Joe Musgrove
Joey Lucchesi
Tyler Anderson
Mike Fiers
Kevin Gausman
Matt Boyd
Jhoulys Chacin
Joey Lucchesi
Marco Estrada
Zach Eflin
Jose Urena
Derek Holland
Marco Gonzalez
Reynaldo Lopez
Dereck Rodriguez
Jacob Junis
Robert Erlin
Trevor Richards

Jesus Luzardo
Forrest Whitley
Chris Paddack
Allen Logan
Brent Honeywell
Touki Toussaint (Mike Soroka, Luiz Gohara)

Reserve rounds: Add a couple from the leftovers listed above and add another middle reliever with a chance to close

Relievers worth stashing:
Trevor May
Blake Parker
Joe Jimenez
Jose Castillo
Kelvin Herrera
Ryan Brasier
Sergio Romo
Diego Castillo
Keone Kela
Yoshihisa Hirano
Hector Neris
Swung-Huang Oh
Reyes Moronta
Craig Stammen

Like with all strategies, you must be a little lucky. But I believe you create your own luck by being prepared. The beauty of this strategy is if you choose wrong, you weren’t heavily invested on that player, so the player is an easy drop. If you reach for a player in the late single digit or early teen rounds, you end up being married to that player and continue to start him to your team’s detriment as their era and whip destroy your pitching.

Give this strategy a shot…
Thank me at seasons end. #oftenwrongneverindoubt

About me: I have been playing fantasy baseball since 1987. I have no analytical expertise or crunch any numbers to support my conclusions. I simply gather up as much info as I can from the smart guys in the industry and then come up with my 2 cents. My one advantage over most of the smart guys is that they are too smart to take risks on certain players as the data won’t allow them to do it. I on the other hand, take all the data and add the human element to it, things that cannot be quantified through math and incorporate my knowledge through experience to foresee a player’s potential breakout or potential bust alert. So, while I cannot back up anything I write about with actual data, my history of winning as well as losing these past 30 years has allowed me to adapt to the year to year trends and strategies which make me a better fantasy baseball player. I can be found 24/7 on Baseball 365 Facebook page or on Twitter @iRotohead

Cheers & Play Ball,

Khang Do (Can Doe)

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