Monday, March 25, 2019

kdo's 2019 MLB fantasy baseball prognostications

rotohead’s fantasy baseball prognostications

fantasy awards:

NL hitting MVP: Freddie Freeman, .326 BA, 39 HR, 12 SB, 114 R, 132 RB
runner-up: Juan Soto, .308 BA, 42 HR, 10 SB, 106 R, 124 RB
NL pitching MVP: Stephen Strasburg, 20 W, 236 K, 2.76 ERA, 1.02 WHIP
runner-up: Noah Syndergaard, 17 W, 242 K, 2.98 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
NL hitting ROY: Victor Robles, .286 BA, 14 HR, 42 SB, 101 R, 64 RB
runner-up: Nick Senzel, .294 BA, 18 HR, 9 SB, 88 R, 68 RB
NL pitching ROY: Chris Paddack, 12 W, 52 K, 2.97 ERA, 1.08 WHIP

AL hitting MVP: Tommy Pham, .293 BA, 32 HR, 30 SB, 116 R, 104 RBI
runner-up: Aaron Judge, .281 BA, 48 HR, 8 SB, 109 R, 114 RB
AL pitching MVP: Chris Sale, 21 W, 300 K, 2.71 ERA, .98 WHIP
runner-up: Corey Kluber, 19 W, 238 K, 2.88 ERA, 1.01 WHIP
AL hitting ROY: Eloy Jimenez, .296 BA, 31 HR, 1 SB, 84 R, 102 RBI
runner-up: Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., .314 BA, 24 HR, 1 SB, 72 R, 88 RBI
AL pitching ROY: Forrest Whitley, 8 W, 138 K, 3.12 ERA, 1.04 WHIP

100 picks and pans:

1.       A.J. Minter, 29 S, 86 K, 2.32 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
2.       Johan Camargo finds 500 at bats and hit .290 with 25 HR
3.       Kevin Gausman, analytics said it was luck, his luck continues, 200 K & 20 W
4.       Mike Foltynewicz command falters and WHIP balloons to 1.42
5.       Zack Godley surpasses 200 k's with a 1.22 whip
6.       David Peralta had 30 HR in 2018 but won’t hit half that in 2019
7.       Dylan Bundy bounces back, 220 K and a 1.18 WHIP
8.       Rafael Devers, .280 BA, 33HR, 102 RBI
9.       Eduardo Rodriguez enjoys an injury free season and sets career highs, 18 W, 210 K
10.   Jackie Bradley, Jr. has his first 20/20 season
11.   J.D. Martinez fails to reach 400 at bats
12.   Ian Happ gets recalled and is 2018 Javier Baez (with walks)
13.   Jose Quintana has a career year, 190K, 17 wins and a whip under 1.20
14.   Yoan Moncada reduces his K rate, and goes 25/25
15.   Tim Anderson does not reach 20 HR or 20 SB
16.   Yasiel Puig does not reach 500 at bats and is not a top 100 player
17.   Trevor Bauer has a 1.30 + WHIP and is a fantasy bust.
18.   David Dahl breakout, 30 HR, 12 SB
19.   Ian Desmond finally benefits in Coors Field, .280 AVE, 32 HR, 20 SB
20.   Jon Gray outperforms German Marquez
21.   Daniel Murphy does not reach 15 HR
22.   Matt Boyd pitches like an Ace
23.   Nick Castellanos with a career year, .304 AVE, 29 HR, 102 R, 108 RBI
24.   Miguel Cabrera is the comeback player of the year
25.   Joe Jimenez becomes an elite Closer for the Tigers
26.   Josh Reddick hit .242 in 2018, he will hit .300 with 20 HR in 2019
27.   Jose Altuve has a career year, .342 AVE, 26 HR, 32 SB
28.   Forrest Whitley will be drafted in the 2nd round in 2019
29.   Whit Merrifield will not steal more than 25 bases
30.   Billy Hamilton will double Whit’s SB total with 50+
31.   Jorge Soler powers 30 jacks
32.   Tyler Skaggs is a top 30 pitcher
33.   Shohei Ohtani delivers 30 HR, 10 SB 
34.   Cody Bellinger hits 45 HR
35.   Alex Verdugo, .300 AVE, 15 HR, 15 SB
36.   Max Muncy hits under .250 and has less than 20 HR
37.   Yasmani Grandal is not a top 10 catcher
38.   Corbin Burnes is Milwaukee’s Ace
39.   Jesus Aguilar will lose the starting job and have less than 300 AB.
40.   Jorge Polanco goes 20/20
41.   Byron Buxton goes 20/30
42.   Max Kepler goes 30/10
43.   Eddie Rosario is the least productive of the 3 listed above
44.   Jacob DeGrom pitches like an Ace
45.   Noah Syndergaard pitches better than Jacob DeGrom
46.   Ahmed Rosario swipes 40 bags
47.   Pete Alonzo, delights with a .260 AVE, 30 HR 
48.   Michael Conforto hits 41 HR
49.   Aaron Judge leads the AL in home runs with 48
50.   Giancarlo Stanton does not reach 30 HR
51.   Gleyber Torres avoids a sophomore slump, goes 30/10
52.   Gary Sanchez will be the #1 fantasy catcher
53.   Matt Chapman hits 35 HR
54.   A.J. Puk is dominant in his brief stint, A’s Ace in 2020
55.   Blake Treinen has command issues, A’s go with Closer by committee
56.   Odubel Herrera goes 25/20
57.   Nick Pivetta is all hype. Strikeouts are there but so is the ugly 1.40 WHIP
58.   Zach Eflin is the best Phillies pitcher (after Aaron Nola)
59.   Josh Bell is fantasy goodness, 28 HR, 100 RBI
60.   Kirby Yates leads the NL in Saves with 44
61.   Fernando Tatis, Jr. is sent down to the minors in June
62.   Fernando Tatis, Jr. returns in August to lead the Padres to the playoffs
63.   Manuel Margot tops 20/20
64.   Franchy Cordero tops 20/10
65.   Hunter Renfroe hits more than 35 home runs
66.   Franmil Reyes hits more than 30 home runs
67.   I am only right on 2 of the 4 predictions made above 
68.   Chris Paddack has a Walker Buehler type rookie season
69.   Matt Strahm has a better season than Chris Paddack
70.   Hunter Strickland will not be closing for Seattle come July
71.   Mallex Smith hits under .260 and has less than 25 SB
72.   Dee Gordon doubles Mallex SB total with 50+
73.   Domingo Santana goes 16/6, but that’s really nothing to write home about
74.   Madison Bumgarner, a return to glory: 15W, 208 K, 2.98 ERA and 1.08 WHIP
75.   Buster Posey bats .308 with 21 HR
76.   Brandon Belt just misses 30 HR (settles for 28)
77.   Reyes Moronta is the Giants Closer by midseason
78.   Jeff Samardzija delights with 200 K and a WHIP below 1.20
79.   Matt Carpenter bats .244 and struggles to hit 20 HR
80.   Jack Flaherty is dominant, 220 K with a 1.10 WHIP
81.   Alex Reyes disappoints with an ERA over 4.0 and a WHIP over 1.35
82.   Willy Adames, .294 AVE, 20 HR, 15 SB, not too shabby
83.   Austin Meadows, breakout alert: .288 AVE, 25 HR, 18 SB, 100 R 
84.   Tyler Glasnow, great K rate but command still dicey, 2020 will be his year 
85.   Rougned Odor, Believe it or not! .270, 30 HR, 15 SB, 90 R, 100 RBI
86.   Joey Gallo hits 46 HR with .230 AVE but .346 OBP! You down with OBP?
87.   Nomar Mazara hits 30+ homers with 100 RBI
88.   Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a consensus 1st rounder in 2020 
89.   Bo Bichette gets the call by August and rakes. A consensus 5th rounder in 2020
90.   Danny Jansen struggles mightily, .244 AVE, 8 HR
91.   Ken Giles somehow gets 38 Saves for a 68 win team
92.   Max Scherzer shows no sign of slowing down and is dominant
93.   Stephen Strasburg is more dominating and wins the Cy Young award
94.   Juan Soto is even better than last season… by a lot!
95.   Anthony Rendon has career year: .316, 32 HR, 100 R, 110 RBI
96.   Trea Turner steals 68 bases to lead the majors
97.   Washington Nationals defeat the Atlanta Braves in the NLCS
98.   New York Yankees defeat the Houston Astros in the ALCS
99.   Washington Nationals defeat the New York Yankees in the World Series
100.   Baseball season is now over and I long for April 2020

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Thursday, March 7, 2019

My game plan for drafting pitching in 2019

Drafting pitching in a 15 team 5x5 Standard Roto league.

Goal: Be among the league leaders in ERA, WHIP and Saves while settling for middle of the pack in Wins and upper middle tier in K’s.

Round 1-5: Get 2 Aces

Rounds 7-12: Get 2 Quality Closers (Do not draft one until at least the top 2 Closers have been drafted)

Rounds 16 -18: Get 1 Middle reliever with a chance to close that can get 80k+ with a great whip and era (Betances, Seranthony, Minter) or your 3rd starter with high k/9 rate that won’t kill your whip.

That is a total of 5 pitchers through 18 rounds. You must Pound, Pound, Pound hitting with your 13 other picks. Make sure to dominate all Hitting Categories, don’t punt any category when it comes to Hitting.

Round 19–23: Get 4 pitchers to make a total of 9 pitchers by the end of round 23. You need to solidify your rotation while not screwing up your whip and ratios. I know... easier said than done. There will be lots of bargain pitchers available as other owners will be scrambling to fill out the rest of their starting offensive players.

Problem is several of these guys are going to end up being horrible, but a handful will help you win a title, key is choosing the right one. Good thing about drafting pitchers this late is if/when they become a detriment to your team, you will have no problem dropping them. 1/3 to over 1/2 of these players will be drafted prior to round 18. Resist the urge to reach for any pitcher listed. Let the other owners help make the decision for you so when it’s your turn to pick in round 19, you can just select the next available player of your choice from the players listed below.

Bounce back Starters:
Robbie Ray
Jose Quintana
Jon Gray
Zack Godley
Dylan Bundy
Luke Weaver

Starters with mixed results returning from injury:
Alex Reyes
Tyler Skaggs
Michael Fulmer
Steven Matz
Julio Urias
Yu Darvish
Jimmy Nelson
Jeff Samardzija
Carlo Rodon
Michael Pineda
Vincent Velasquez

The Reliever turned (possible) Starter:
Tyler Glasnow
Collin McHugh
Corbin Burnes
Josh James
Mike Minor
Matt Strahm
Brad Peacock
Seth Lugo
Freddy Peralta
Yonny Chirinos
Jonathan Loaisiga

Under the radar guys who had a nice 2018 - can they build on it in 2019?
Andrew Heaney
Nathan Eovaldi
Joe Musgrove
Joey Lucchesi
Tyler Anderson
Mike Fiers
Kevin Gausman
Matt Boyd
Jhoulys Chacin
Joey Lucchesi
Marco Estrada
Zach Eflin
Jose Urena
Derek Holland
Marco Gonzalez
Reynaldo Lopez
Dereck Rodriguez
Jacob Junis
Robert Erlin
Trevor Richards

Jesus Luzardo
Forrest Whitley
Chris Paddack
Allen Logan
Brent Honeywell
Touki Toussaint (Mike Soroka, Luiz Gohara)

Reserve rounds: Add a couple from the leftovers listed above and add another middle reliever with a chance to close

Relievers worth stashing:
Trevor May
Blake Parker
Joe Jimenez
Jose Castillo
Kelvin Herrera
Ryan Brasier
Sergio Romo
Diego Castillo
Keone Kela
Yoshihisa Hirano
Hector Neris
Swung-Huang Oh
Reyes Moronta
Craig Stammen

Like with all strategies, you must be a little lucky. But I believe you create your own luck by being prepared. The beauty of this strategy is if you choose wrong, you weren’t heavily invested on that player, so the player is an easy drop. If you reach for a player in the late single digit or early teen rounds, you end up being married to that player and continue to start him to your team’s detriment as their era and whip destroy your pitching.

Give this strategy a shot…
Thank me at seasons end. #oftenwrongneverindoubt

About me: I have been playing fantasy baseball since 1987. I have no analytical expertise or crunch any numbers to support my conclusions. I simply gather up as much info as I can from the smart guys in the industry and then come up with my 2 cents. My one advantage over most of the smart guys is that they are too smart to take risks on certain players as the data won’t allow them to do it. I on the other hand, take all the data and add the human element to it, things that cannot be quantified through math and incorporate my knowledge through experience to foresee a player’s potential breakout or potential bust alert. So, while I cannot back up anything I write about with actual data, my history of winning as well as losing these past 30 years has allowed me to adapt to the year to year trends and strategies which make me a better fantasy baseball player. I can be found 24/7 on Baseball 365 Facebook page or on Twitter @iRotohead

Cheers & Play Ball,

Khang Do (Can Doe)

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Tuesday, January 29, 2019

kdo's top 100 MLB dynasty league prospect rankings 2019

kdo's 2019 mlb fantasy prospect rankings
Rankings are based for Fantasy Baseball purposes.
Standard 5x5 Roto DYNASTY (keep forever) format.
Player's ceiling/floor, hit tool, walk rate, k rate, wRC+, age and pedigree all have a big impact on how I have them ranked.
Defense is only factored if it affects a player’s at bats or if a likely change in position would have an impact (C to 1b) in a players value.
I prefer a batter that can make the biggest MLB impact with hit tool being one of the main factors. 
Young Pitching is so volatile. So many have filthy elite stuff, but injury and command are a pitcher’s best friend or worst nightmare.
I prefer drafting pitching prospects late (with a few exceptions) or else trade for them when they reach the majors. 
Regarding prospects, I'd rather reach too early on a player if I believe in the talent then go "safe" and miss out because I waited too long.
There are no "safe" picks with prospects, just better educated guesses. So, when In doubt, go big and reach for the stars.
Below are my personal rankings that I would use for a dynasty start-up draft or supplemental rookie draft.
Top 10 : No doubt about, these guys are Future MLB Stars
11-50 : you could flip these rankings and it would not bother me. These are guys I love but
they come with holes or are just too inexperienced. All are capable of jumping into the Top 10 or making an MLB impact by season's end.
51-100 : Lots of promise and blemishes in this group. Which direction one follows will determine if 
he is a "can't miss prospect" or will drop out of the top 100 and beyond.
Rank Player Pos Organization Level Age
1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3B Toronto Blue Jays AAA 19
2 Eloy Jimenez OF Chicago White Sox AAA 22
3 Victor Robles OF Washington Nationals MLB 21
4 Wander Franco SS Tampa Bay Rays ROOK 17
5 Nick Senzel 3B Cincinnati Reds AAA 23
6 Royce Lewis SS Minnesota Twins A+ 19
7 Bo Bichette SS Toronto Blue Jays AA 20
8 Forrest Whitley SP Houston Astros AA 21
9 Fernando Tatis Jr. SS San Diego Padres AA 20
10 Alex Kirilloff OF Minnesota Twins A+ 21
11 Jo Adell OF Los Angeles Angels AA 19
12 Yordan Alvarez 1B Houston Astros AAA 21
13 Jesus Luzardo SP Oakland Athletics AAA 21
14 Kyle Tucker OF Houston Astros MLB 22
15 Brendan Rodgers SS Colorado Rockies AAA 22
16 Keston Hiura 2B Milwaukee Brewers AA 22
17 Michael Kopech SP Chicago White Sox MLB 22
18 Kristian Robinson  OF Arizona Diamondbacks ROOK 18
19 Luis Garcia SS Washington Nationals A+ 18
20 Taylor Trammell OF Cincinnati Reds A+ 21
21 Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B Pittsburgh Pirates AAA 22
22 Austin Riley 3B Atlanta Braves AAA 21
23 MacKenzie Gore SP San Diego Padres A 19
24 A.J. Puk SP Oakland Athletics AA 23
25 Brent Honeywell SP Tampa Bay Rays AAA 23
26 Peter Alonso 1B New York Mets AAA 24
27 Mike Soroka SP Atlanta Braves MLB 21
28 Joey Bart C San Francisco Giants ROOK 22
29 Yusniel Diaz OF Baltimore Orioles AA 22
30 Casey Mize SP Detroit Tigers A+ 21
31 Jonathan India 3B Cincinnati Reds A 22
32 George Valera OF Cleveland Indians ROOK 18
33 Victor Victor Mesa OF Miami Marlins A+ 22
34 Trevor Larnach OF Minnesota Twins A 21
35 Nathaniel Lowe 1B Tampa Bay Rays AAA 23
36 Jazz Chisholm SS Arizona Diamondbacks A+ 20
37 Alex Reyes SP St. Louis Cardinals MLB 24
38 Matt Manning SP Detroit Tigers AA 21
39 Dylan Cease SP Chicago White Sox AAA 23
40 Nolan Jones 3B Cleveland Indians A+ 20
41 Garrett Hampson 2B Colorado Rockies MLB 24
42 Jesus Sanchez OF Tampa Bay Rays AA 21
43 Chris Paddack SP San Diego Padres AA 23
44 Gavin Lux 2B Los Angeles Dodgers AA 21
45 Andres Gimenez SS New York Mets AA 20
46 Carter Kieboom SS Washington Nationals AA 21
47 Vidal Brujan 2B Tampa Bay Rays A+ 20
48 Ian Anderson SP Atlanta Braves AA 20
49 Luis Robert OF Chicago White Sox A+ 21
50 Alex Verdugo OF Los Angeles Dodgers MLB 22
51 Yusei Kikuchi SP Seattle Mariners JAPAN 27
52 Bubba Thompson OF Texas Rangers A 20
53 Touki Toussaint SP Atlanta Braves MLB 22
54 Daz Cameron OF Detroit Tigers AAA 22
55 Triston McKenzie SP Cleveland Indians AA 21
56 Sixto Sanchez SP Philadelphia Phillies A+ 20
57 Nolan Gorman 3B St. Louis Cardinals A 18
58 Nick Madrigal 2B Chicago White Sox AA 21
59 Keibert Ruiz C Los Angeles Dodgers AA 20
60 Luis Urias 2B San Diego Padres MLB 21
61 DL Hall SP Baltimore Orioles A 20
62 Mitch Keller SP Pittsburgh Pirates AAA 22
63 Nate Pearson SP Toronto Blue Jays A+ 22
64 Matthew Liberatore SP Tampa Bay Rays ROOK 19
65 Tyler Freeman SS Cleveland Indians ROOK 19
66 Hudson Potts 3B San Diego Padres AA 20
67 Drew Waters OF Atlanta Braves A+ 20
68 Joshua James SP Houston Astros MLB 25
69 Jarred Kelenic OF Seattle Mariners A 19
70 Adrian Morejon SP San Diego Padres A+ 19
71 Nick Pratto 1b Kansas City Royals A 20
72 Francisco Mejia C San Diego Padres MLB 23
73 Luis Patino SP San Diego Padres A 19
74 Bryse Wilson SP Atlanta Braves MLB 21
75 Mark Vientos 3B New York Mets ROOK 19
76 Kyle Wright SP Atlanta Braves MLB 23
77 Brendan Mckay P/1B Tampa Bay Rays A+ 23
78 Marco Luciano SS San Francisco Giants ROOK 17
79 Colton Welker 3B Colorado Rockies A+ 21
80 Adonis Medina SP Philadelphia Phillies A+ 22
81 Logan Allen SP San Diego Padres AAA 21
82 Hunter Greene SP Cincinnati Reds A 19
83 Brandon Marsh OF Los Angeles Angels A+ 20
84 Jorge Mateo SS Oakland Athletics AAA 23
85 Adam Haseley OF Philadelphia Phillies AA 22
86 Brayan Rocchio 2B Cleveland Indians ROOK 18
87 Austin Beck  OF Oakland Athletics A 20
88 Nico Hoerner SS Chicago Cubs A 21
89 Xavier Edwards 2B San Diego Padres ROOK 19
90 Estevan Florial OF New York Yankees A+ 20
91 Khalil Lee OF Kansas City Royals AA 20
92 Danny Jansen C Toronto Blue Jays MLB 22
93 Jhon Torres OF St. Louis Cardinals ROOK 18
94 Jordan Groshans 3B Toronto Blue Jays ROOK 18
95 Heliot Ramos OF San Francisco Giants A 19
96 Elehuris Montero 3B St. Louis Cardinals A+ 20
97 Anderson Espinoza SP San Diego Padres A+ 20
98 Jonathan Loaisiga SP New York Yankees MLB 23
99 Luis Rengifo 2B Los Angeles Angels AAA 21
100 Luiz Gohara SP Atlanta Braves MLB 22
Honorable Mention : All have the ability to leapfrog into the top 100 in a hurry!
(listed by age)
Everson Pereira OF New York Yankees ROOK 17
Jeisson Rosario OF San Diego Padres A 18
Tirso Ornelas OF San Diego Padres A 18
Antonio Cabello OF New York Yankees ROOK 18
Julio Rodriguez OF Seattle Mariners ROOK 18
Isaac Parades SS Detroit Tigers AA 19
Deivi Garcia SP New York Yankees AA 19
Shane Baz SP Tampa Bay Rays ROOK 19
Esteury Ruiz 2B San Diego Padres A 19
Freudis Nova SS Houston Astros ROOK 19
Jordyn Adams OF Los Angeles Angels ROOK 19
Shervyen Newton SS New York Mets ROOK 19
Luis Oviedo SP Cleveland Indians A 19
Brusdar Graterol SP Minnesota Twins A+ 20
Leody Taveres OF Texas Rangers A+ 20
Ronaldo Hernandez C Tampa Bay Rays A 20
Jeter Downs SS Cincinnati Reds A 20
Seuly Matias OF Kansas City Royals A 20
Wander Javier SS Minnesota Twins ROOK 20
Ryan Mountcastle 3B Baltimore Orioles AA 21
Franklin Perez SP Detroit Tigers A+ 21
Jahmai Jones 2B Los Angeles Angels AA 21
Dustin May SP Los Angeles Dodgers AA 21
Travis Swaggerty OF Pittsburgh Pirates A 21
Joey Wentz SP Atlanta Braves A+ 21
Tony Santillan SP Cincinnati Reds AA 21
Evan White 1B Seattle Mariners AA 22
Griffin Canning SP Los Angeles Angels AAA 22
Kevin Smith SS Toronto Blue Jays A+ 22
Justus Sheffield SP Seattle Mariners MLB 22
Alec Bohm 3B Philadelphia Phillies ROOK 22
Dennis Santana SP Los Angeles Dodgers MLB 22
Dalton Varsho C Arizona Diamondbacks A+ 22
Brady Singer SP Kansas City Royals ROOK 22
Julio Pablo Martinez OF Texas Rangers ROOK 22
Seth Beer 1B Houston Astros A+ 22
Cole Tucker SS Pittsburgh Pirates AA 22
Clarke Schmidt SP New York Yankees A 22
Daniel Lynch SP Kansas City Royals A 22
Corbin Martin SP Houston Astros AA 23
Michael Chavis 3B Boston Red Sox AAA 23
Justin Dunn SP Seattle Mariners AA 23
Monte Harrison OF Miami Marlins AA 23
Nick Solak 2B Tampa Bay Rays AA 23
Austin Hays OF Baltimore Orioles MLB 23
Jon Duplantier SP Arizona Diamondbacks AA 24
Taylor Widener SP Arizona Diamondbacks AA 24
Dane Dunning SP Chicago White Sox AA 24
Corey Ray OF Milwaukee Brewers AA 24
Joe Palumbo SP Texas Rangers AA 24

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